OC Housing Snapshot

Demand for homes — number of pending deals during the month of October— dropped by 210 homes in the orangehouse01past 2 weeks to 2,463, but it’s still up 98% from a year ago (that would be 2,463 in Oct. 2008 vs. 1,241 in Oct. 2007). The October 2008 demand is also up from the same period in 2006 where pending sales were at 2,011 homes, an 81% jump.

Housing inventory in the past 2 weeks has increased by 68 homes to 12,790 vs. 17,454 a year ago and 15,253 at this time 2 years ago.

Sellers have been reluctant to put their homes up for sale in this market, and it shows by the decreases in inventory. Just like many buyers, they are waiting until “the market gets better”.

One of the things stopping the market from “getting better” is the time it would take for all the active inventory in the MLS to get sold.  Based on the above pending home sales rate and active inventory numbers, it would take 5.19 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 4.76 months two weeks ago vs. 14.06 months a year ago vs. 7.41 two years ago. Historically, an average market where it is neither a buyers’ nor a sellers’ market is where the inventory would take 3 to 5 months to sell. it would appear we are approaching that “average” market if not already there in some cases.

Homes selling for under a million dollars have a market time of 4.40 months vs. 19.39 months for homes listed for more than a million dollars. You can probably get a better deal in the over a million dollars category.

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